Optimal Gradualism— 2022

When people face adjustment frictions, gradual shocks create less adverse distributional effects in the short run. We provide formulas for the optimal level of gradualism of trade and technology shocks, and use these formulas to study the optimal policy response to the automation of routine jobs, the China Shock, and Colombia's trade liberalization in 1990.

 Joint with Nils Lehr

Not a Typical Firm— 2022

The uneven adoption of automation technologies results in a declining aggregate labor share, a rising labor share for the median firm, and rising sales concentration. Relative to technology, markups play a minor role in manufacturing.

 Joint with Joachim Hubmer

Uneven Growth— 2022

When technological change involves automation, most of its productivity gains accrue to capital owners instead of workers, generating a pattern of uneven growth.

 Joint with Ben Moll and Lukasz Rachel

 Forthcoming at Econometrica.

Tasks, Automation, and the Rise in US Wage Inequality— 2022

Technologies that displace workers from tasks explain 50-70% of the rise in US wage inequality

 Joint with Daron Acemoglu

 Forthcoming at Econometrica.

Automation and the Workforce: A Firm-Level View from the 2019 Annual Business Survey — 2022

Using newly collected data from the ABS, this paper provides a comprehensive view of the adoption of several technologies across US firms in all economic sectors.

 Joint work with the US Census Bureau

 Prepared for the NBER/CRIW Conference on Technology, Productivity, and Economic Growth

AI and Jobs: Evidence from Online Vacancies — 2022

Firms whose task structures are more aligned with applications of AI are spearheading the adoption of this technology. Yet, this has not translated into an increase in hiring outside of AI-related fields.

 Joint with Daron Acemoglu, David Autor, and Joe Hazell

 Forthcoming at the Journal of Labor Economics.

Demographics and Automation — 2021

Countries that are aging rapidly are spearheading advances in industrial automation and robotics.

 Joint with Daron Acemoglu

 Review of Economic Studies.

Does the US Tax Code Favor Automation? — 2020

Heavy taxation of labor and light taxation of capital might lead to excessive automation. If a full tax reform is unfeasible, taxing automation might reduce some of the inefficiencies in the current system and raise employment and the labor share.

 Joint with Daron Acemoglu and Andrea Manera

 Brookings Papers on Economic Activity.

Unpacking Skill Bias: Automation and New Tasks — 2020

Technologies that change the allocation of tasks between skilled and skilled workers have large effects onw age ienquality and can bring modest productivity gains and declining real wages for unskilled workers.

 Joint with Daron Acemoglu

 AEA Papers and Proceedings.

Competing with Robots: Firm-level Evidence from France — 2020

Firms that adopt robots become more productive, less labor intensive, and expand at the expense of competitors.

 Joint with Daron Acemoglu and Claire Lelarge

 AEA Papers and Proceedings.

The Task Content of Production— 2019

Technologies that reallocate tasks across factors play a crucial role in explaining labor demand

 Joint with Daron Acemoglu

 Journal of Economics Perspectives.

Robots and Jobs — 2019

Employment and wages have declined in US regions that house industries prone to the use of robots.

 Joint with Daron Acemoglu

 Journal of Political Economy.

Artificial Intelligence, Automation and Work — 2019

Historical examples of automation, discussions about automation in the future, and a framework for thinking about technology.

 Joint with Daron Acemoglu

 Chapter of NBER Book on "The Economics of Artificial Intelligence: An Agenda."

Democracy Does Cause Growth— 2019

We provide evidence showing that we chose our title for a reason

Joint with Daron Acemoglu, James Robinson and Suresh Naidu

 Journal of Political Economy.

The Race Between Man and Machine— 2018

Automation reduces the labor share, but in the long run technology evolves to keep it balanced.

 Joint with Daron Acemoglu

 American Economic Review.

Scarcity Without Leviathan— 2017

Cocaine seizures in Colombia have created scarcity in downstream markets. Mexico suffered outbursts of violence as a consequence.

Joint with Daniel Mejia and Juan Camilo Castillo

 Review of Economics and Statistics.

Structural Unemployment— 2016

Automation, computers and technology might create temporary unemployment, especially during recessions.

The Mounties & the Origins of Peace— 2015

The mounties stopped Canadians (and hockey players) from developing a culture of violence.

Crime and Conspicuous Consumption— 2014

Before the great crime decline of the 90s, being victimized was one of the hazards of keeping up with the Joneses.

Joint with Daniel Mejia

 Journal of Public Economics.

Democracy & Redistribution— 2014

Democracies have larger governments, but their impact on inequality may be more complex.

Joint with Daron Acemoglu, James Robinson and Suresh Naidu

 Handbook of Income Distribution.

Enforcement on Illegal Markets— 2014

Aerial spraying of coca crops with glyphosate only reduces cultivation slightly, and we have a natural experiment in Colombia to show it.

Joint with Daniel Mejia and Sandra Rozo

 World Bank Economic Review.

Bushes and Bullets— 2014

Cocaine brought violence and corruption to Colombia, especially during periods of high demand and in areas suitable for cultivation.

Joint with Daniel Mejia

Hockey Visors and Risky Behavior— 2014

Protective gear: does the extra-safety make us reckless? Turns out in the case of Ice Hockey Peltzman was right.

Joint with Alberto Chong

 Journal of Public Economics.

The Economics of the War on Drugs— 2013

The War on Drugs in source countries is doomed to fail. Some broad economic forces explain why.

Joint with Daniel Mejia

 Journal of Economic Behavior and Organizations.